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Joseph Swit
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Sports Analysis

Insights and Sports Analysis from a POTUS In-Training

(Candidate in 2032)

Note: He also does Political Analysis.

July 7 , 2010

The State of Baseball after Three Months

After three months of the 2010 Major League Baseball season most teams have played 81 games meaning we are already halfway through this amazing season in baseball. We’ve already seen 4 no-hitters and if not for an umpire’s blown call we would have seen three perfect games a feat unprecedented in baseball history considering that there had only been 18 perfect games before this season. Even though there have been an unusual amount of no-hitters in baseball this year it shouldn’t go unnoticed that there have been a lot of hitters putting up impressive numbers in 2010. Robinson Cano in New York has been one of those hitters; he’s leading the Majors with a .354 average and is putting up impressive power numbers, and playing stellar defense at second base. Also performing well in 2010 is free swinging Vladimir Guerrero over in Texas, who at 35 is having a career year and powering the first place Rangers. There have been some surprise teams in MLB this year and all of the current Divison leaders in the National League would fit that category as the Padres, Reds, and Braves have certainly defied most expectations. The Reds in particular are a team that could go a long a way, with a good balance of pitching, hitting and a solid bullpen the Reds look poised too upset early season Central Divison favorites such as Milwaukee and St. Louis. However, out west the Padres win with their pitching and shut down bullpen, even though they are a young team they have proved that they can win tight games as they have been on the winning side of numerous 1-0 games. I think that they will be able to use that experience to their advantage in the postseason. The Padres rotation could prove especially dangerous in a 5 game series so expect the Padres to go deep into the playoffs. In the Eastern Divison Atlanta finds itself atop a tightly packed race featuring strong teams including the Mets and the defending NL Champs Philadelphia. The only thing that might keep the Braves from winning their first Divison title since 2005 would be that the Phillies are suffering from some injuries right now and their high powered offense hasn’t really hit their stride yet, but once the Phillies get rolling it will be hard for the Braves to stop them. It should be an exciting second half so stay tuned.

May 1, 2010

NL Predictions

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are the two time defending NL Champs and have another great team which is poised to go back to the playoffs again. What separates the Phillies from teams like the Braves and the Marlins in their Divison is that they have the delicate balance of good pitching with a staff lead by Roy Halladay and good hitting. While Roy Halladay is going to be key to the Phillies survival in a pitching rich Divison it will have to be their offense that will carry them to another pennant. The only thing that could keep the Phillies from a third straight pennant would be their bullpen, if they can find a solid closer it will be an easy season, if they can’t things could be a lot closer in the NL East.

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals. The defending Central champs Cardinals are back and poised for a repeat. They finally filled their biggest void from last season, the protection of Albert Pujols. With the signing of Matt Holliday the Cardinals have two sluggers in the middle of their order to go with the deadly pair of aces in the starting rotation with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. I just don’t think there are any other teams in the Central who have the balance of pitching and hitting to stop the Cardinals from winning a second successive Central title.

NL West: San Francisco Giants: The NL West is the most wide open Divison in baseball with the slow starts of initial Divison favorites Dodgers and Rockies, and the red hot starts of the Padres have shaken things up out west. While the Padres have had a great start I just don’t see the Padres keeping up with that pace because at the first sign of falter Padres ownership could trade Adrian Gonzalez and the Padres could fall back into the pack. The San Francisco Giants are the only team that has the pitching to stay ahead in this Divison. With former Cy Young award winners Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum the Giants have the rotation to lead them to the top.

NL Wildcard: Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are the second best team in the Central and they have a young nucleus of players such as Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce with the pitching of Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez. They have a good chance of surviving the hunt for the Wildcard that will go down to the last weekend. Teams that could come up just a bit short of the Reds on October 4th would include the Braves, Mets, Marlins, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Padres. It will be a close race for the Wildcard but The Reds will come out on top. Monday

Monday April 5, 2010

Opening Day and Predictions

With Josh Beckett’s pitch to Derek Jeter on Sunday the 2010 Major League Season was officially underway, and as the Red Sox beat the Yankees 9-7 the first game of the season was complete. So before the other 28 teams in baseball open their 2010 season its time to predict where they will stand 161 games from now.

American League West: Winner: Texas Rangers, the Rangers may not have the juggernaut offense they showcased in the late 90’s and early 2000’s but for the first time in a long time they actually have pitching depth, thanks to the help of Team Owner, President and Ranger Hall Of Famer Nolan Ryan Texas has a surplus of talented arms led by former submarine reliever turned 17-game-winner Scott Feldman. The champions of the West for the past 3 seasons the Los Angeles Angels have been hurt by the departures of John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins and their starting rotation lacks a clear cut ace. The Seattle Mariners have two of those aces but not much rotation depth behind Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee and don’t have a power hitter in the middle of the order who can provide run support for the pitching staff. In Oakland GM Billy Beane is gambling on a trio of rookie starters; Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Vin Mazzoro and an injured veteran Ben Sheets who missed all of last season to carry their rotation.
American League Central: Winner: White Sox. The White Sox have the best pitching staff in the Central Divison and have a young offense lead by Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham. The Twins have an offense lead by Joe Mauer that stacks up to the Sox but their pitching staff has been mediocre the last few seasons and they just lost their closer Joe Nathan for the season, I think this spells a Divison winner for the North Siders.

American League East: Winner: New York Yankees. The defending champs have the best starting pitching in the Divison and have by far the best offense of the all the teams in the league. The Rays have a considerable offense of their own but they don’t have a staff that I think can survive the rigors of a 162 game season. The Orioles have a great nucleus of young players but they just can’t stack up against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
American League Wild Card: Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have one of the best if not the best rotations with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Clay Bucholz. The one factor that could separate the Red Sox from a 1st place finish from a wild card win would be if David Ortiz steps up and becomes the David Ortiz of old, that would provide the power the Red Sox need to put them over the Yankees.

Stay tuned for the NL Predictions.

Sunday, July 26 2009

Trade Deadline Rumors, Roy Halladay, and Division Races

With the Trade Deadline just 4 days away there are plenty of teams looking to bolster their rosters for a playoff run. The unquestioned jewel of the trade market is Toronto Blue Jay ace Roy Halladay. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Halladay could be dealt to any number of teams as the Blue Jays sit in 4th place in the AL East and 10 games behind Boston and New York. The only problem for the Blue Jays is that the two teams that would be best suited to giveaway enough young players to trade for Halladay are Toronto’s division rivals the Yankees and Red Sox. Obviously the Blue Jays would prefer not to trade Halladay to a team in their own division but there aren’t many teams with enough money to resign Halladay who is a free agent at the end of 2010. However, the fact remains that plenty of teams need Halladay even if only for a-season-and-a-half: The Brewers, Rockies, Cardinals, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Angels, Rangers, Cubs, and Astros could all use Roy Halladay. All the teams I just mentioned are in the thick of a pennant race and Roy Halladay could propel them to the postseason, it’s just a question of who’s willing to give the most to get Halladay. The NL wildcard will probably go to the Giants they’ve got the best rotation in the NL and although they did not get Matt Holliday, who was traded to the Cardinals, they still have enough talent to get it done. The NL Central is wide open but if ether the Cubs, Cardinals, or Brewers get Roy Halladay then that team will go on to win the division. If the Cardinals get Roy Halladay then they could be a potential World Series winner because with Roy combined with Albert Pujols, and now Matt Holliday the Cardinals could be unstoppable. It will all go down on the 31st, who will get Roy Halladay and can that team use him to their advantage? We’ll just have to wait and see.

Thursday, June 26 2009

The State of Baseball Heading Towards the Halfway Point

Here on June 26 most teams have played about 74 games and were approaching the All- Star-Break so lets look at the standings. In the AL East the Red Sox have a 4 game lead over the Yankees, are 5 ahead of Toronto, and 6 ahead of Tampa. With a resurging David Ortiz, and a deep pitching staff the Red Sox could start to runaway with this division. It’s going to be hard for any team in the east to catch Boston; the Yankees had their chances but have lost the first 8 head-to-head meetings with Boston. And just 2 weeks ago the Yankees were in first place riding a hot stretch that saw them win 19 of 26 games. However, New York has cooled off of late, but if they get Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira hitting again then they could make a run at Boston. But the Yankees currently have the lead in the AL Wildcard and I don’t think Toronto or Tampa Bay could make a run at the Yankees. The Blue Jays have lost Roy Halladay and I don’t think their injury plagued staff can withstand a pennant race. Also, the Rays have been treading water ever since injuries deprived them of Scott Kazmir and Troy Percival so I don’t think the Rays can win with a struggling bullpen and pitching staff. The only other teams that could contend with the Yankees for the Wild Card would be the Angels and the Rangers, both of which have the pitching that could carry them to October. In the AL Central the Twins have been hovering at .500 all season long and have yet to make their move on the first place Tigers. I don’t think the Twins can catch the Tigers who are playing much better baseball in ’09 and are currently 5 games ahead of the Twins.

In the NL East the Phillie’s struggling rotation has barley kept them in first place a half game in front of the Mets and a game in front of the Marlins. The NL East could conceivably be won by any of those teams including the Braves who could make a trade for Matt Holliday to add some power to a struggling lineup. The Marlins could also make a run at the division, or the wildcard if their young pitching holds up through the stretch. In the NL Central the Cardinals hold a 1 game lead over the Brewers with the other 4 teams in the division within 6 games of first place, this is another wide open division and I could see all the teams except the Pirates making it to the playoffs. I think the Pirates conceded the race the day they traded Nate McLouth to the Braves. Had they held on to McLouth, with Nate McCutchen and other young stars they could have been able to build a championship team. Over in the NL West the Dodgers have not missed Manny Ramirez one bit going 26 and 17 in the slugger’s absence, but of course will be happy to get Manny back when he returns to action on July 3rd in San Diego. The other teams in the NL West won’t be able to catch the Dodgers, but the second place Giants could make a run at the wild card in which they currently lead. They’ll have a better chance of doing so if they get another bat particularly Matt Holliday which should be enough for Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, Randy Johnson, and Matt Cain, the Giants stellar rotation. The races are tight and the baseball is great so stay tuned throughout the season!

Friday May 29, 2009

Baseball heading into June

It’s been almost two months since the MLB season started and we’ve had some surprises. Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the Cincinnati Reds, who behind young players like Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips as well as veteran pitchers such as Bronson Arroyo have a chance to make a run at the wide open NL Central. The other big surprise is out in Kansas City where the Royals behind arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Zack Greinke, have kept up with the powerhouse Tigers and the scrappy Twins. Elsewhere, in Texas, the Rangers have been winning not with their offense but with their new and improved pitching staff. This is a team that I think can go deep into the playoffs, if their starting pitching can withstand the intensity of a playoff race. In The Bronx the streaky Yankees have been able to stay a half game back of the Red Sox, just two weeks after being 6.5 games back of the then first place Blue Jays. The Blue Jays who until a win tonight were mired in a nine game losing streak which saw their first place lead evaporate and now sit in third in the AL East behind Boston and New York. The team behind the Jays in the East is the reigning AL Champs, the Tampa Bay Rays who have been plagued by injuries, sit in 4th place and 6 games behind Boston. The teams who I think can keep up their early season success are the Red Sox; the Royals who have struggled of late will rebound and keep up with the leaders in the Central. The Reds will keep up their success and will stay in contention for the Wild Card all year long. The team behind the Reds in the NL Central is the Chicago Cubs, who have had a disappointing start to 09 sit at 24-23 which is not that bad, but by Chicago standards that’s just not acceptable. However, Lou Pinella will not let the Cubs continue this type of play and will have them back in thick of things in the NL Central come July. There’s much more baseball to be played so stay tuned.

Friday, February 13th 2009

Predictions for the 2009 MLB Season

If you've been in a coma for the last 4 months of the MLB offseason then you've missed a lot: Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett, and C.C. Sabathia are all with the New York Yankees, Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday have signed with the Oakland Athletics, Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz have both found their way toward the New York Mets, and Manny Ramirez still doesn't have a job. It's been a busy offseason to say the least and you're probably all dying to know who will win the World Series this year. Well I've decided that it's too early to predict a World Series winner, but it's not to early to pick the teams that'll make it into the playoffs. Here are my predictions:

American League:

East: New York Yankees, they just signed the three best players on the free agent market and their going to rebound after last year and make it to October. With the acquisition of Teixeira it gives their lineup a lot more power and protection for Alex Rodriguez. With the additions of Burnett and Sabathia the Yankee pitching staff has gone from mediocre to one of the best in the league. Burnett, Sabathia and Taiwanese righty Chien-Ming Wang are all potential 20 game winners. Wang is probably one of the most underrated players in the game; he won 19 games in 2006 and 2007, and probably would have won 20 games in 2008 if he had not been sidelined with a leg injury. So I'm going with the Yankees in the AL East.

West: Oakland Athletics, I know their not the favorites to win in the west but I'm going with them because they just signed Giambi and Holliday which will bring back some offense to the bay area. A lot of people will probably pick the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to win this division, but the Angels just lost Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez to the Yankees and Mets respectively, and I don't think they can pull it off this year. That's why I'm going with Oakland to win the AL West.

Central: Minnesota Twins, the Twins have turned out winning teams for the last six years in the tightly packed Central Division, and they just missed the playoffs with a one game showdown loss to the White Sox. They have the young talents of Justin Morneua, Joe Mauer and Delmon Young. They'll continue their solid work with a first place finish in the AL Central in 2009.

Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays, the Rays were the big surprise of the 2008 season and they'll get to the playoffs again in 2009. They may have lost key veterans like Rocco Baldelli and Cliff Floyd, but they have a good young nucleus lead by Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria. The Rays finished with the worst record in baseball in 2007, but rebounded to make it to the World Series in 2008, and they very well might make it back to the World Series in 2009.

National League:

East: New York Mets, for the past two years the Mets have struggled down the stretch in September and blown division leads. It was for that reason that Mets GM Omar Minaya got the single season saves king Francisco Rodriguez and Mariners closer J.J. Putz to come to Flushing for the 2009 season. With Rodriguez and Putz in the bullpen it's unlikely that the Mets will have another late-season meltdown. Rodriguez and Putz along with young Jose Reyes and David Wright will help the Mets back to October.

West: This one's a toss up I think it will be either the San Francisco Giants or the Los Angeles Dodgers. It all depends on one player, Manny Ramirez. It's simple if the Dodgers resign Ramirez then they win the west. However, if they don't resign Ramirez then the Giants who have just brought in Randy Johnson, will win the west. It all depends on Ramirez.

Central: Milwaukee Brewers, they have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun and they just came off a playoff berth and they know how to win. Not to mention they added the all time saves leader Trevor Hoffman to their bullpen. The Brewers will win the NL Central in 2009.

Wild Card: Washington Nationals, this pick may surprise a lot of people, but I've chosen the Nationals because they just signed Adam Dunn, he'll give them the power and leadership the Nationals need. The Nationals may be fighting with the Cardinals or the Diamondbacks for the wild card but I think they've got just enough young talent to slip in and win the NL Wild Card.

Monday, August 17

Baseball heading into the final Month of the season, who will make October and who will miss it
            A lot has changed since I last wrote and if you asked a month ago that the Rays would have a four and a half game lead over the Boston Red Sox and a nine and a half game lead over the Yankees I  would have thought you were kidding, but the sad truth is that the Yankees will probably miss the playoffs for the first time since 1993 and the Tampa Bay Rays who had the worst record in all of Major league Baseball a season ago will make the playoffs for the first time in their ten year existence.
            However there are still other tight races across the sport here are my predictions:
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card:  St. Louis Cardinals

            We’ll have to see how the rest of the season plays out so stay tuned.

Tuesday, July 15

The All Star Game and the state of Baseball at the Half Way Mark

On the eve of the 79th All Star game and the last at Yankee Stadium Major League Baseball has completed the first half of the 2008 season.  The first half may have surprised some as the Tampa Bay Rays who had a record of just 66-96 last season find themselves just .5 games back of the defending champions the Boston Red Sox.  We all knew that Tampa Bay who shortened there name to Rays over the off season would have a better year but no one expected this much from the Florida team which was created only a decade ago as an expansion team might just make the playoffs and win the AL East.  But also at the halfway point is the All Star game at Yankee Stadium which has suddenly found itself the welcoming place for 7 Boston red Sox and 7 Chicago Cubs representing there respective leagues. 
            There’s definitely some players on each team that are deserving of the honor to play at the last All Star game at Yankee Stadium like Manny Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, and Jonathon Paplebon.  However I see no reason in selecting Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Jason Varitex who is hitting .218 at the break to the All Star game.  To prevent things like this I think that Major League Baseball should put rules about repetitive voting for the game so that we can Make sure that not to many players represent each team.
But tonight is a night to sit back a and watch the 79th All Star game at Yankee Stadium and hope that this game can add more great memories to the historic Yankee Stadium.

Saturday, May 24

The State of the Baseball season, making sense of Chipper Jones, Josh Hamilton and the slumping New York Yankees
            I know that my AL pick isn’t living up to its standard in the Yankees but they’ve got Arod back and they are starting to win.  Once they get Posada back this lineup which has already started to pick up the slack with a twelve and thirteen run showing Friday and Saturday against the Mariners will be much improved.
Ian Kennedy finally got a quality for the Yankees and if Phil Hughes when he returns follows suit then the rotation with the always dominate Chien Ming Wang, the consistent Andy Petite, the recently hot Mike Mussina and with the surprise performances of Darrell Rasner might be enough for them to get into the playoffs.  As for winning the World Series I am not so sure but I am a sports analyst and a stick by my picks.
As for the Cubs well I believe my pick will be right with them winning the NL pennant with Zambrano, Soriano, Lee and Fukudome leading the way the Cubs are the team to beat in the NL Central and pretty much all of Baseball frankly.
Chipper Jones is on fire but I think it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be hitting over .400 by seasons end.  Every player goes through slumps in the course of 162 games and he hasn’t gone through one yet so he might not be the first player since Ted Williams to hit over .400.
Josh Hamilton has a much better shot at the Triple Crown then Chipper Jones does at hitting .400.  However I still think its unlikely he will probably lead in Home Runs and RBIs although Chipper may not hit .400 he’ll definitely get in the .390, .380 range which would render it hard for Hamilton to complete the feat.