JosephSwit.com:Blog Archives and, Political Punditry from a 12-Year-Old POTUS in Training

On the eve of the 79th All Star game and the last at Yankee Stadium Major League Baseball has completed the first half of the 2008 season. The first half may have surprised some as the Tampa Bay Rays who had a record of just 66-96 last season find themselves just .5 games back of the defending champions the Boston Red Sox. We all knew that Tampa Bay who shortened there name to Rays over the off season would have a better year but no one expected this much from the Florida team which was created only a decade ago as an expansion team might just make the playoffs and win the AL East. But also at the halfway point is the All Star game at Yankee Stadium which has suddenly found itself the welcoming place for 7 Boston red Sox and 7 Chicago Cubs representing there respective leagues.
There’s definitely some players on each team that are deserving of the honor to play at the last All Star game at Yankee Stadium like Manny Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, and Jonathon Paplebon. However I see no reason in selecting Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Jason Varitex who is hitting .218 at the break to the All Star game. To prevent things like this I think that Major League Baseball should put rules about repetitive voting for the game so that we can Make sure that not to many players represent each team.
But tonight is a night to sit back a and watch the 79th All Star game at Yankee Stadium and hope that this game can add more great memories to the historic Yankee Stadium.

            When the dust settled down after nearly sixteen months of ferocious campaigning the Democratic Party finally had a nominee but we were still left with questions. Will Senator Hillary Clinton who racked up more delegates then any runner up in history be on the ticket with Barack Obama?
            Well if you asked me that question three months ago I would have laughed and thought you were crazy. But three months ago, not only 45% of all Hillary Clinton supporters said they were going to vote for Barack Obama. So now with the unifying the party so important to Obama’s victory in the fall, I say yes.
            He really needs Clinton to help him carry the nearly 18 million people who voted for her in the primaries. However Senator Obama does have other choices for his running mate: Jim Webb of Virginia but I don’t think he has enough experience to make up for Obama’s four years in the Senate. Ted Strickland might help him carry Ohio but that’s just a maybe, Bill Richardson would definitely help with the Latino vote in his home state of New Mexico. John Edwards would help Obama bring black the working class Americans in his state of North Carolina but that’s likely to go Republican. And of course there’s Al Gore who has become extremely poplar in the Democratic Primary after nearly winning the 2000 election.
            But in the end I think it’s going to be Hillary Clinton who Barack Obama raises his arms with at the Denver Convention to win back the long eluded White House in November.

Making sense of Florida and Michigan
            For all matters and intents of purpose Saturday was should have been the last day of Hillary Clinton's bid for the White House. There is now no way Hillary Clinton can catch up in pledged delegates. But a bigger problem is forming, the campaign maybe mathematically over, but Hillary Clinton might see things differently. As Harold Ickes bluntly put it at last night’s rules committee meeting, Hillary Clinton has instructed him to reserve the right to appeal to the credential committee and possibly take this fight to the Denver Democratic National Convention in late August. Taking this to the convention would be a grave mistake on the part of the Sen. Clinton, it’s going to be so hard to beat John McCain in the fall already but to continue to fight even after Sen. Obama has passed the new magic number of 2,118 would definitely damage the Democrat’s chances of taking back the White house this election.
           The Florida and Michigan problem was an unfortunate mess that neither candidate was responsible for. But the Rules Committee did its best to “make right” this mess. Clinton doesn’t have much to complain about. She got what she wanted, she got most of the delegates seated. Yet she is willing to risk the chances of splitting the Democrats in the fall for a little over ten delegates in Michigan is just plain stupid. I believe Hillary Clinton is an honorable person and is one of the most valuable members of the Democratic party today, however if she takes this to the convention floor, whether she wins or not it will permanently damage her reputation in the Democratic party.
            Even if she does win the nomination at the convention there is no chance whatsoever that she’ll beat John McCain with the party divided. I hope that this threat from the Clinton campaign is just a bluff. I hope Hillary Clinton will do the right thing in the best interest in the party and will not take this furious fight to the Denver Convention.

The State of the Baseball season, making sense of Chipper Jones, Josh Hamilton and the slumping New York Yankees
I know that my AL pick isn’t living up to its standard in the Yankees but they’ve got Arod back and they are starting to win. Once they get Posada back this lineup which has already started to pick up the slack with a twelve and thirteen run showing Friday and Saturday against the Mariners will be much improved.
Ian Kennedy finally got a quality for the Yankees and if Phil Hughes when he returns follows suit then the rotation with the always dominate Chien Ming Wang, the consistent Andy Petite, the recently hot Mike Mussina and with the surprise performances of Darrell Rasner might be enough for them to get into the playoffs. As for winning the World Series I am not so sure but I am a sports analyst and a stick by my picks.
As for the Cubs well I believe my pick will be right with them winning the NL pennant with Zambrano, Soriano, Lee and Fukudome leading the way the Cubs are the team to beat in the NL Central and pretty much all of Baseball frankly.
Chipper Jones is on fire but I think it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be hitting over .400 by seasons end. Every player goes through slumps in the course of 162 games and he hasn’t gone through one yet so he might not be the first player since Ted Williams to hit over .400.
Josh Hamilton has a much better shot at the Triple Crown then Chipper Jones does at hitting .400. However I still think its unlikely he will probably lead in Home Runs and RBIs although Chipper may not hit .400 he’ll definitely get in the .390, .380 range which would render it hard for Hamilton to complete the feat.

Obama's Speech – From Pastor to Pennsylvania Avenue?

Senator Barack Obama's speech on March 18th responding to the racial comments by his pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, generated different reactions since its delivery. While universally hailed as an oratorical treasure, Obama's call for unity might have reassured some voters. Unfortunately, it might have been too little and too late for others.

While I think this speech might have had more impact if Obama had delivered it a few days after the fiery sermons from his church became known to the public, the 46-year old Senator from Illinois -- ahead in delegates, states won and the popular vote -- showed major electoral strength by turning this issue to his advantage. Obama spoke in a way that no recent politician has ever done, and evoked an image of the June 1968 Bobby Kennedy, which enhances his message that he is truly running with the "Politics of Change."

Yet, some might think that he was just another politician trying to save his neck. I disagree. He went up on that stage and did not defend himself in any way, but called for unity and unity alone. Obama's speech can not heal all the wounds from the comments of Wright, but that wasn't Obama's intent. He knew that, no matter what he said, he wouldn't be able to heal all the wounds. Rather, the purpose of that speech on Tuesday was to show that he can articulate with precision and passion what is needed to lead the country in a new direction.

And, Obama delivered both precision and passion – which very well may carry his campaign for the Presidency of the United States of America all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. on a hopefully sunny January 2009 afternoon.

Oddly, in a race where all the major candidates have promised that race and politics will be a thing of the past, it's front and center. Especially after Illinois Senator Barack Obama’s pastor, Jeremiah Wright, made some controversial statements against the United States and New York Senator Hillary Clinton during several of his sermons supporting Obama. Obama since has distanced himself from Wright’s statements, saying that, if he had heard about those statements, he would have taken action. Whether Senator Obama, who has belonged to the church for more then 20 years, had no idea that those kinds of statements were being made, we all just have to take his word for it. However, Wright, who is due to retire at the end of the month, has caused problems for Obama who has been trying to stay on message after losing the Ohio and Texas primaries.

Obama has been responding to critics for about a week now, consistently saying that that he doesn’t stand for Wright’s remarks. The junior Senator now has a new pastor, but even the new one doesn’t sound a whole lot better as the new one has defended Wright's statements.

Should Florida and Michigan hold New Democratic Primaries and Who Should Pay for Them?

Of the many problems in this year’s election, one of the biggest is the controversy of Florida and Michigan moving up their Democratic primaries from Super Tuesday to January 15th for Michigan and January 29th for Florida. In response, Democratic National Committee Chairmen Howard Dean stripped the two states of their delegates, making thousands of Democratic votes not count. Which leaves us in a situation where two of the biggest delegate states are not going to be seeded at the convention.

The DNC needs to hold redo elections before it is too late. With the race as tight as it is between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, there is no way we are going to have a nominee before the convention if they keep splitting the delegates. However, there is a possibility that, if the some 300-plus delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated, then we might very well have a nominee before the convention.

When to hold a potential redo election is another problem. The seven-week period between the March 4th primaries and the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary seems like an ideal time, but, unfortunately, there is not enough time to get a primary going up before Pennsylvania. And, if you just shove two huge states in between another big state like Pennsylvania, the candidates will complain that they did not have enough time to campaign in Michigan and Florida and still keep up steady campaigning in the next big prize, Pennsylvania.

It is going to be extremely difficult to come up with a plan that will make both Senators happy. With the option of Pennsylvania gone, the only possible option left seems to be to slip a primary in the Tuesday before June 7th, the last day for primaries. With Puerto Rico talking of moving its Democratic caucus to the Sunday or Monday before the deadline, that would seem to be the closest both sides will get to an agreement.

In addition to timing, the form of the “redone” primaries needs deciding. If it’s a caucus, Clinton will argue that Obama does better in caucuses. If a primary is held, then the state governments of Florida and Michigan will complain that they cant pay for a primary, which would cost around $30 million.

But who should pay for a re-vote? Florida Republican Governor Charlie Crist says that the candidates will have to come up with a way to put up the money for a re-vote. But, really the person who disenfranchised his voters in the first place is Charlie Crist himself. It was Crist and the Republican-controlled Florida legislature that moved up the primaries from Super Tuesday, knowing full well that the DNC would take away their delegates. Their explanation -- “An opportunity to elect the new leader of the free world” Well, if they had only waited five days from January 29 to Super Tuesday, Florida could have helped elect the new leader of the free world. Instead, the result of Crist’s maneuvers was to disenfranchise the Florida voter; something Republican state officials have been doing since 2000.
If there’s anyone that should have to pay for a re vote, it’s the Republicans in Michigan and Florida who denied their voters the chance to choose delegates, not the candidates. This is just another clever little scheme by the Republicans to scuttle the Democratic run for the White House.

It’s going to be a tough road for the Democratic Party to come up with a suitable way to hold reelections that will make everyone happy. But, for now, it remains one of the top issues on the campaign trail.

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Insights and Political Punditry from a POTUS In-Training

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