JosephSwit.com: Political Punditry from a 12-Year-Old POTUS in Training

After losing the crucial Pennsylvania primary the pressure’s on Senator Barack Obama to win the May 6th North Carolina and Indiana Democratic primaries. But how does he win while Senator Hillary Clinton currently has the momentum? Well there really isn’t a whole lot that Obama can do he can’t start attacking Clinton aggressively like he tried to do in Pennsylvania, it just doesn’t work.

What he has got to do is stay on message and keep arguing hat he is the candidate for real change. He also has to continue to raise enormous sums of money for advertising. What he can’t do is make a mistake, like the NAFTA mishap that cost him the Ohio primary, or the “bitter” comments that arguably cost him the Pennsylvania primary. Obama is favored to win in North Carolina and in most polls is ahead by more then ten points, and I don’t think that two weeks is enough time for Hillary Clinton to make up that deficit, especially considering that a good majority of the states voters are African Americans where he leads.

So he must turn his campaign to Indiana where the young presidential hopeful has said will be the tie breaker. If Obama is to win in Indiana then the momentum that he will receive will likely carry his campaign to a fierce general election where Senator John McCain and his Republican party patiently await the Democratic nominee.

Obama's Speech – From Pastor to Pennsylvania Avenue?

Senator Barack Obama's speech on March 18th responding to the racial comments by his pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, generated different reactions since its delivery. While universally hailed as an oratorical treasure, Obama's call for unity might have reassured some voters. Unfortunately, it might have been too little and too late for others.

While I think this speech might have had more impact if Obama had delivered it a few days after the fiery sermons from his church became known to the public, the 46-year old Senator from Illinois -- ahead in delegates, states won and the popular vote -- showed major electoral strength by turning this issue to his advantage. Obama spoke in a way that no recent politician has ever done, and evoked an image of the June 1968 Bobby Kennedy, which enhances his message that he is truly running with the "Politics of Change."

Yet, some might think that he was just another politician trying to save his neck. I disagree. He went up on that stage and did not defend himself in any way, but called for unity and unity alone. Obama's speech can not heal all the wounds from the comments of Wright, but that wasn't Obama's intent. He knew that, no matter what he said, he wouldn't be able to heal all the wounds. Rather, the purpose of that speech on Tuesday was to show that he can articulate with precision and passion what is needed to lead the country in a new direction.

And, Obama delivered both precision and passion – which very well may carry his campaign for the Presidency of the United States of America all the way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. on a hopefully sunny January 2009 afternoon.

Oddly, in a race where all the major candidates have promised that race and politics will be a thing of the past, it's front and center. Especially after Illinois Senator Barack Obama’s pastor, Jeremiah Wright, made some controversial statements against the United States and New York Senator Hillary Clinton during several of his sermons supporting Obama. Obama since has distanced himself from Wright’s statements, saying that, if he had heard about those statements, he would have taken action. Whether Senator Obama, who has belonged to the church for more then 20 years, had no idea that those kinds of statements were being made, we all just have to take his word for it. However, Wright, who is due to retire at the end of the month, has caused problems for Obama who has been trying to stay on message after losing the Ohio and Texas primaries.

Obama has been responding to critics for about a week now, consistently saying that that he doesn’t stand for Wright’s remarks. The junior Senator now has a new pastor, but even the new one doesn’t sound a whole lot better as the new one has defended Wright's statements.

Should Florida and Michigan hold New Democratic Primaries and Who Should Pay for Them?

Of the many problems in this year’s election, one of the biggest is the controversy of Florida and Michigan moving up their Democratic primaries from Super Tuesday to January 15th for Michigan and January 29th for Florida. In response, Democratic National Committee Chairmen Howard Dean stripped the two states of their delegates, making thousands of Democratic votes not count. Which leaves us in a situation where two of the biggest delegate states are not going to be seeded at the convention.

The DNC needs to hold redo elections before it is too late. With the race as tight as it is between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, there is no way we are going to have a nominee before the convention if they keep splitting the delegates. However, there is a possibility that, if the some 300-plus delegates from Florida and Michigan are seated, then we might very well have a nominee before the convention.

When to hold a potential redo election is another problem. The seven-week period between the March 4th primaries and the April 22nd Pennsylvania primary seems like an ideal time, but, unfortunately, there is not enough time to get a primary going up before Pennsylvania. And, if you just shove two huge states in between another big state like Pennsylvania, the candidates will complain that they did not have enough time to campaign in Michigan and Florida and still keep up steady campaigning in the next big prize, Pennsylvania.

It is going to be extremely difficult to come up with a plan that will make both Senators happy. With the option of Pennsylvania gone, the only possible option left seems to be to slip a primary in the Tuesday before June 7th, the last day for primaries. With Puerto Rico talking of moving its Democratic caucus to the Sunday or Monday before the deadline, that would seem to be the closest both sides will get to an agreement.

In addition to timing, the form of the “redone” primaries needs deciding. If it’s a caucus, Clinton will argue that Obama does better in caucuses. If a primary is held, then the state governments of Florida and Michigan will complain that they cant pay for a primary, which would cost around $30 million.

But who should pay for a re-vote? Florida Republican Governor Charlie Crist says that the candidates will have to come up with a way to put up the money for a re-vote. But, really the person who disenfranchised his voters in the first place is Charlie Crist himself. It was Crist and the Republican-controlled Florida legislature that moved up the primaries from Super Tuesday, knowing full well that the DNC would take away their delegates. Their explanation -- “An opportunity to elect the new leader of the free world” Well, if they had only waited five days from January 29 to Super Tuesday, Florida could have helped elect the new leader of the free world. Instead, the result of Crist’s maneuvers was to disenfranchise the Florida voter; something Republican state officials have been doing since 2000.
If there’s anyone that should have to pay for a re vote, it’s the Republicans in Michigan and Florida who denied their voters the chance to choose delegates, not the candidates. This is just another clever little scheme by the Republicans to scuttle the Democratic run for the White House.

It’s going to be a tough road for the Democratic Party to come up with a suitable way to hold reelections that will make everyone happy. But, for now, it remains one of the top issues on the campaign trail.

JosephSwit.com

Insights and Political Punditry from a POTUS In-Training

(Candidate in 2032)

Note: He also does Sports Analysis.

Go to Sports Analysis page to read Sports blog

JosephSwit.com

Insights and Political Punditry from a POTUS In-Training

(Candidate in 2032)

Note: He also does Sports Analysis. Go to Sports Analysis page to read Sports blog

Note: He also does Sports Analysis.

Go to Sports Analysis page to read Sports blog